An extended period of below-normal rainfall causing water shortages, crop failure and ecological stress. The slowest-moving but most economically damaging weather hazard.
phenomenaWhat is Drought?
Drought is a prolonged period of below-normal rainfall that causes water shortages, crop stress, ecological damage and economic loss. Unlike floods, cyclones or thunderstorms, drought is slow-onset: it builds invisibly over weeks to years before its impacts become obvious. By the time wells dry up, reservoirs empty and crops wilt, the underlying meteorological deficit may have been accumulating for an entire growing season.
The World Meteorological Organization defines four categories of drought:
- Meteorological drought — Rainfall is below a defined long-term average for a specific period (e.g., 25%+ deficit over three months).
- Agricultural drought — Soil moisture is too low for crops to grow normally. Can occur even with adequate seasonal rainfall if timing is wrong.
- Hydrological drought — Rivers, reservoirs and groundwater fall below normal levels. Lags meteorological drought by weeks to months.
- Socio-economic drought — Water demand exceeds supply, causing shortages in cities, industries and farms.
In South Asia, drought is the most economically damaging weather hazard, even if cyclones and floods dominate the news. Drought affects far more people for far longer.
How drought develops in South Asia
The Indian monsoon is the lifeline. Roughly 75% of India’s annual rainfall falls in four months (June–September). A 20% monsoon deficit means 15% of the entire year’s rainfall is missing — and there is no second chance until the following year.
Key drivers of monsoon failure:
- El Niño — Pacific warming weakens monsoon circulation. Around 60% of El Niño years see deficient Indian monsoons.
- Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — Can offset El Niño impacts; protective.
- Negative IOD — Can amplify monsoon failure.
- Strong Eurasian winter snow cover — May delay onset.
- Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase — Can support or suppress monsoon rainfall over weeks.
For Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal, drought patterns roughly follow India’s. For Pakistan, drought is influenced by the southwest monsoon plus winter Mediterranean storms; 2018–2022 saw a multi-year drought across Sindh and Balochistan.
Major South Asian drought years
India:
- 1965–67: Two consecutive monsoon failures; the “Bihar famine” — major food crisis.
- 1972: Severe drought across Maharashtra, Karnataka, AP.
- 1987: Worst drought of the late 20th century — monsoon 19% below normal.
- 2002: Monsoon 19% below normal; Rajasthan and Gujarat worst hit.
- 2009: 23% deficit — second-worst monsoon in five decades. ~200 districts declared drought-affected.
- 2014–15: Back-to-back monsoon deficits; severe drought in Marathwada, Bundelkhand.
- 2023: El Niño year; monsoon 6% below normal; some southern states saw 30%+ deficits.
Pakistan:
- 1999–2002: Worst drought in 50 years; major economic shock.
- 2018–2022: Prolonged Sindh/Balochistan drought.
Bangladesh:
- 1979, 1981, 1994: Major droughts affecting Rangpur, Rajshahi divisions.
Impacts of drought
Agriculture (largest impact):
- Crop yield losses of 20–50% in deficit years.
- Kharif rice, maize, soybean, cotton hit hardest.
- Farmer distress, debt, suicides — Maharashtra and Karnataka have seen severe suicide clusters during drought years.
- Livestock deaths due to fodder shortage.
Water supply:
- Reservoir levels drop; cities ration supply.
- Groundwater pumping intensifies, depleting aquifers.
- Domestic and industrial water shortages — Chennai’s 2019 “Day Zero” crisis.
Energy:
- Hydropower output drops — major issue for Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan.
- Thermal plants face cooling-water shortages.
Health:
- Malnutrition rises in rural areas.
- Heat-related illnesses spike — drought years often pair with severe heatwaves.
Air quality:
- Reduced rainfall fails to wash dust and PM2.5 out of the atmosphere.
- Post-drought summers often see worse AQI.
Economy:
- 2009 drought reduced India’s GDP growth by ~0.5 percentage points.
- 2014–15 caused an estimated $50 billion in cumulative agricultural losses.
Drought management and early warning
The IMD operates a drought monitoring system issuing weekly bulletins during the monsoon. Indicators include:
- Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) over 1, 3, 6, 12 months.
- Soil moisture from satellite observations.
- NDVI (vegetation health) from MODIS satellites.
- Reservoir levels at major dams.
- Groundwater levels from monitoring wells.
State-level drought declarations trigger relief measures: crop insurance payouts, fodder distribution, water tanker deployment, MNREGA work increases.
Long-term mitigation includes:
- Micro-irrigation (drip, sprinkler) to reduce water use.
- Watershed management — check dams, contour bunding.
- Drought-tolerant seeds (millet, sorghum, pulses).
- Crop diversification away from water-intensive rice and sugarcane.
Drought outlook for 2026
The 2023–24 El Niño ended in mid-2024, and the Pacific has moved toward ENSO-neutral / weak La Niña conditions. For 2026, early forecasts suggest a normal or above-normal Indian monsoon, reducing drought risk. However, regional vulnerabilities remain — particularly in Marathwada, Bundelkhand, Rayalaseema, and southern Karnataka, all of which have weak historic monsoon performance.
Mausam Online publishes daily and 7-day rainfall forecasts for every South Asian city — useful for tracking monsoon progress and identifying early drought signals.
Frequently asked questions
How is “drought” officially declared in India? The IMD identifies meteorological drought when rainfall in a region is 20%+ below normal. State governments declare administrative drought after assessing crop damage, water levels and farmer distress. The triggers vary by state.
Is drought becoming more common with climate change? Climate models suggest a mixed picture for South Asia: total monsoon rainfall may increase slightly, but rainfall becomes more concentrated in fewer, heavier events with longer dry spells between them. This actually raises both flood and drought risk simultaneously.
Which Indian states are most drought-prone? The “drought triangle” of Marathwada (Maharashtra), Telangana, and Rayalaseema (Andhra Pradesh) is most chronically affected. Also Bundelkhand (UP/MP border), western Rajasthan, Kalahandi (Odisha), northern Karnataka.
Can you have drought during the monsoon? Yes — “intra-seasonal drought” or “dry spell.” Even in a normal monsoon year, individual districts can have 2–4 weeks without rain during critical crop stages, causing localised crop failure.
Where can I check rainfall data for my city? Mausam Online displays current and 7-day forecast rainfall on every city page. For seasonal monsoon performance, see IMD’s official monsoon updates. Live forecasts: Marathwada, Rayalaseema, Bundelkhand, Bikaner.